????????????????????????????????5)
???????????? ???????[ 2011/10/28 14:20:59 ] ????????
S????????????????2???????????
1. Delay-S?????????????
Delay-S?????????????????????S??????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????泻???????????????????????????????S?????????????????????S??????????
Delay-S????????????????????
Delay-S??????????????(CDF)??F(t)=K*(1-(1+??*t)exp(-??*t))??
Delay-S??????????????(PDF)??f(t)=K*(??^2)*t*exp(-??*t)??
???校?t?????K??????????????????????
Delay-S?????????????????????
?3 Delay-S???????CDF?
?4 Delay-S???????PDF?
2. Inflection-S?????????????
Inflection-S??????????????????????S??????????????
????S??????????????眉???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????懈?????屑???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Inflection-S????????????????????
Inflection-S????????????????CDF????F(t)=K*(1-exp(-??*t))/(1+??*exp(-??*t))??
Inflection-S????????????????PDF????f(t)=K*??*exp(-??*t)*(1+??)/(1+??*exp(-??*t))^2??
???校?t?????K??????????????????????
Inflection-S??????????????????????????S??????????????????
?????卸?
??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????路?????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????????????????????????????????锟�???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????路???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Gompertz????????????Logistic???????
?????????械??????????械??????????????????????????????屑?????????????谐???????????????卸????????????????????????????
???????????R2???????????卸?
??????R2????????????????卸?????????????卸??????????????????????????????????????卸?????????????????卸?R2???????????卸??????????????????????????????校?R2?????????????????????????????
????胁??????Q=??(y-y*)^2?????校?y?????????????y*???????????
??????????R2=1-Q/??(y-ya)^2?????校?y?????????????ya??????????????????
?卸?????R2???????1????????????
?????浠�??R2???????????卸?????Gompertz?????Logistic???????
Gompertz?????Logistic???????????????????????????????????????杌�??????????斜浠�????Gompertz?????卸????浠�????Logistic?????械????浠�?????????????????????????????????屑?????????????????????浠�????????R2???????????卸??
Gompertz????
????????????????卸????浠�
???????浠�???????????y?????????浠�???????????y*
???????????????????????浠�???胁??????Q????????R2
Logistic????
??????????????????????浠�
?????浠�???????????y???????浠�???????????y*
???????????????????????浠�???胁??????Q????????R2
????????????????????????????????卸?
????R2???????卸????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????械??????卸????????????????械?????
?????????胁??????Q=??(y-y*)^2???y^2?????校?y?????????????y*???????????
?????渭????????RNew=1-(Q/??y^2)^(1/2)
?卸?????RNew????1????????????
???????????????懈????卸?
???????????锌??????????????????????????锟�??????????????????????????谩????????????????????????????????????????????N?????械?????????????????薪???小????????????????谩?????????????????FR=cos??=??(yy*)/((??y^2)^(1/2)* (??y*^2)^(1/2))??
??????????RNew????????????????????????????校???????FR?????????RNew????????????????????
?????睢�????????睢�???????????????????
???娼�?????????睢�????????睢�????????????????????????????????????????校?At??????t????????Ft??????t????????n????????????????胃?????????????????
???????MAD??Mean Absolute Deviation
??????????????????????????????????????(????????????????????)????????
?????MAD=(??|At-Ft|)/n??t=1??n
MAD??????????????????????谩?MAD??????????????????????????????????
??????????MSE??Mean Square Error
?????MSE=(??At-Ft)^2/n??t=1??n
MSE??MAD??????????????????????????????????
??????????MFE??Mean Forecast Error
???????????????????????????
?????MFE=(??(At-Ft))/n??t=1??n
???校???(At-Ft)??t=1??n?????????????????RSFE(Running Sum of Forecast Errors)???????????????????RSFE??y????0????MFE??????0?????MFE?????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????MAPE??Mean Absolute Percentage Error??
?????MAPE=(??|(At-Ft)/At|)/n??t=1??n
??????MAPE小??10???????????
MAD??MFE??MSE??MAPE???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????锌????????????????????????????????
??????

???路???
??????????????????
2023/3/23 14:23:39???写?貌??????????
2023/3/22 16:17:39????????????????????些??
2022/6/14 16:14:27??????????????????????????
2021/10/18 15:37:44???????????????
2021/9/17 15:19:29???路???????路
2021/9/14 15:42:25?????????????
2021/5/28 17:25:47??????APP??????????
2021/5/8 17:01:11